The Euro may jump to 48.40 UAH: What will happen to the dollar by the end of April.

The statements of US President Donald Trump about the dismissal of the head of the Federal Reserve and other political statements create instability in the currency markets. Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev named these factors and made a forecast for the exchange rate for the next week.

Political statements of President Trump

Unpredictable statements by Trump continue to affect global financial markets. For example, when Trump announced a possible dismissal of the head of the Federal Reserve, the dollar exchange rate sharply fell, and the price of gold rose. His statements about trade tariffs with China and the EU also caused fluctuations in currency rates.

'Such a human factor and loud speeches practically move the markets. In the end, the markets will have immunity, and then Trump's loud statements will not affect so much. This is a bad factor for America and for the dollar,' explains Kozyrev.

Forecast for currency rates

According to Kozyrev's forecast, the corridor on the international markets for the euro-dollar pair will range from 1.131 to 1.155 dollars per euro. This will affect the exchange rate in Ukraine:

• Interbank (non-cash dollar): 41.30-41.90 UAH
• Euro against the hryvnia: 46.71-48.40 UAH

On the cash market, the following indicators are expected:

• Dollar spread in most exchange offices: 20-25 kopecks
• Euro spread: 20-60 kopecks
• Dollar rate in banks: 41.10-42.00 UAH
• Dollar rate in financial company exchange offices: 41.05-41.90 UAH
• Euro rate in banks: 46.50-48.50 UAH
• Euro rate in financial company exchange offices: 46.70-48.40 UAH

End of the month and impact on the market

The end of the month has a significant impact on the currency market. During this period, budget calculations between businesses and companies are conducted, which can lead to an increase in operations in the interbank market. The National Bank will need to spend between 380 and 640 million dollars on interventions to support the hryvnia.

Monetary policy

The Fed rates have not been lowered since March 2025 and currently stand at 4.25-4.5% annually. The difference between ECB and Fed rates is about 2% in favor of the US. It is forecasted that the Fed may lower rates by 0.25% or even 0.5% at the next meeting on May 7. This is necessary to stimulate the US economy and reduce the cost of servicing external debts.

The role of the NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine has sufficient resources to control exchange rate fluctuations. The impact of the NBU's foreign exchange reserves of over 42 billion dollars can avoid sharp fluctuations and affect import prices from the EU. However, further growth of the euro exchange rate may lead to inflationary processes in Ukraine.